I haven't posted for a while and in that time there have been some incredible changes in the world, especially in the Middle East? Who would have predicted the sudden changes, effectively revolutions, which have resulted in the departure of entrenched leaders in Tunisia, then Egypt? It is amazing how events trigger big change. I believe it was economic pressures, which were the catalyst in Tunisia which sparked events in Egypt and other countries in the region. We are watching events unfold in Libya.
The immediate concern for the wider world community is humanitarian. Libya, especially, has a huge expatriate community and keeping these people safe is a logistical nightmare. While the workers from the developed world have been evacuated, the largest numbers are migrant workers from developing countries and their home governments do not have the resources to mount the operations which European and North American countries have been able to coordinate. Many of these workers were not lawfully employed, unregistered and working for small businesses which themselves do not have any resources to help their workforce. Unfortunately migrant workers from developing countries are under greater pressure to find opportunities abroad and are prepared to take greater risks. They therefore suffer the most when there is a crisis. It is also likely that they will be more reluctant to return home where they don't have prospects of employment or other support to replace the salaries they have remitted while working overseas.
What will the future bring in these countries? The history of revolutions is that they rarely result in an outcome which could be predicted. I would only anticipate an extended period of uncertainty while new leaders and systems establish themselves in the political vacuum which often exists in countries dominated for long periods by authoritarian rulers who do not tolerate oppositions.
The international community needs to support the creation of democratic institutions which can offer lasting stability but must also be careful how this support is given. Ultimately it is for the citizens of the countries effected to decide what they want and for us to hope they get it.
